The Future of Migration in the Pacific and Asia

Walsh, A. Crosbie
"The Status of Circular Migration in the Evolution of Melanesian Towns: An Attempt at Explanation." Vol. 1 (2), p. 196-219, 1992
The debate on circular migration in Melanesia has given too little recognition to the temporal and spatial context for this movement and too much attention to descriptions of migration behavior rather than larger processes of change. What is lacking is a broad design theory for Pacific Islands migration. This article proposes a model of Melanesian urbanization and associated forms of migration, both permanent and temporary/circular. The model describes four stages of urban development, spanning the arrival of capitalism to a futuristic city of the next century. The author links the future of circular migration in Melanesia to the relative strengths of the precapitalist and capitalist modes of production and associated social relations, particularly the wantok.

Skeldon, Ronald
"On Mobility and Fertility Transitions in East and Southeast Asia." Vol. 1 (2), p. 220-249, 1992
The relationship between fertility and mobility is examined with reference to Zelinzky's mobility transition hypothesis. Five Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, China) at different stages of development and mobility transition are compared with respect to shifting sectoral patterns of migration and changing levels of fertility. National trends suggest that the development sequence proposed by Zelinsky on the basis of the European experience does not generally apply to Asia. In four out of five cases examined, fertility declined before substantial urbanization took place. Zelinsky's sequence of mobility change should be modified to fit the experience of developing countries, but the importance of the interrelationship between fertility decline and mobility change remains.

Huguet, Jerrold W.
"The Future of International Migration within Asia." Vol. 1 (2), p. 250-277, 1992
Data on flows from Asia to the Middle East and developing countries as well as on flows within Asia are presented, followed by a discussion of the growing importance of intraregional labor migration. Demographic pressures and widely varying economic growth rates will stimulate this movement and bring greater private and government agency participation. Female and family migration and settlement will be encouraged by geographic and cultural proximity. As intraregional labor migration becomes more institutionalized, governments face major policy challenges for planning, regulating and monitoring overseas employment; for the protection of migrant workers; and for stronger regional cooperation.

Hayes, Geoffrey
"The Use of Scientific Models in the Study of Polynesian Migration." Vol. 1 (2), p. 278-312, 1992
After presenting a detailed argument in favor of approaches which test and criticize theory in search of scientific progress, the author juxtaposes the two dominant models or theories of the causes and consequences of Pacific emigration and seeks a synthesis which contains the best and most justifiable features of each. The MIRAB model developed primarily by Bertram and Waters and the dependency or structuralist model associated with Connell are analyzed for their demographic, sociocultural and economic subsystems, showing the need for further analysis, interpretation and empirical research.

Va'a, Leulu Felise
"The Future of Western Samoan Migration to New Zealand." Vol. 1 (2), p. 313-332, 1992
The history of Samoan migration to New Zealand, a demographic profile of the migrants, and the future of such migration are discussed. Migration became a serious phenomenon after independence in 1962, with primarily young, unskilled workers moving to take up jobs in the agricultural and service sectors. Remaining essentially unchanged since 1962, New Zealand's immigration policy gives preferential treatment to Western Samoans and recognizes their valuable labor contribution. The future of migration to New Zealand is discussed in the context of the costs and benefits to Western Samoa. Contrary to some observer, the author argues that emigration has been beneficial rather than deleterious to Western Samoa's development and predicts the continuation of Samoan migration to New Zealand, Australia, United States and other countries, with increased emphasis on family reunion.

Baudchon, Gerard P.
"Movement in the French Pacific: Recent Situation and Prospects." Vol. 1 (2), p. 333-349, 1992
Population movements in the French Pacific territories (French Polynesia, New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna) are discussed. The local government of French Polynesia and the French authorities have tried since the beginning of the 1980s to prevent migration to Tahiti by retaining the population on the outer islands and by encouraging return migration. In New Caledonia, though the internal migration problem has been overshadowed by political turmoil, the 1988 Matignon Agreement addresses regional development and migration. The future of movement in the French Pacific is partly linked to the political status and economic prosperity of each territory because the actual policies are very expensive and cannot be maintained without external financial assistance.

Rubinstein, Donald H. and Michael J. Levin
"Micronesian Migration to Guam: Social and Economic Characteristics." Vol. 1 (2), p. 350-385, 1992
The recent lowering of some obstacles to the migration of Micronesians to Guam has resulted in a sudden influx of migrants. In a short time, Guam has experienced many of the impacts associated with large scale migration on population growth, provision of services and the issue of ethnic assimilation. An extensive demographic profile of newly settled migrants is presented, followed by a discussion of future implications. Micronesian migration is expected to grow, encouraging the formation of nucleated ethnic communities, a sizeable working class, and social costs and potential ethnic conflict that will draw increasing attention from the Guam government.

Huguet, Jerrold W.
"Migration and Urbanization: Interrelationships with Socioeconomic Development and Evolving Policy Issues." Vol. 1 (2), p. 386-399, 1992.